New Delhi, May 6
India’s top mathematical expert in charge of Covid trend predictions says the current second wave could peak maximum within 15 days and even by the end of the current week. Prof M Vidyasagar of IIT-Hyderabad, who leads Covid-19 India National Supermodel Committee, today said the cumulative cases could peak by May 7 and at most within 15 days.
“We expect a decline in cases by May 7. Different states will peak at different times because some states are witnessing larger surges. But if you take the cumulative cases, these appear close to the peak now and a decline should start soon,” Prof Vidyasagar explained. The chief of the national modelling panel acknowledged that they completely missed the peak of the second wave.
The committee had projected the second Covid spell to peak at 1.2 lakh cases whereas daily cases today soared to 4.12 lakh. This implies that the experts underestimated the second wave peak by 3.43 times, as acknowledged by PM’s Principal Scientific Adviser K Vijay Raghavan yesterday. The national super modelling committee had on October 18 last year (when daily cases began declining after mid-September peak of 97,000 cases) said India could curb the pandemic by early 2021, if everyone followed the safety protocol.
In view of the vaccine shortages, Kang said the Centre should delay doses for those who have already been infected with Covid-19 because 80 per cent of the infected are known to get protection for seven months.